The Straight Scoop on the Post-Convention Polls

The myriad of post-RNC and DNC Convention polls can make one dizzy. The timing of the poll (a bounce right after a convention usually evens out to a more accurate level a few days later), the type of the polling sample (registered voters v. likely voters), and the wording of the questions can all skew the results. With all of those variables in mind, let’s take a look at what the numbers say and what really matters.

1. President Obama’s job performance rating is THE key number. He is the incumbent and the rule of thumb in political campaigns is that when an incumbent’s job performance approval rating by the voters is less than 50%, he or she becomes vulnerable to defeat. Gallup’s tracking poll conducted September 4-6 – during the Dem. Convention – had Obama’s approval rating at 52%, a 7% increase from Gallup’s prior September 1-3 sample of 45%, and the highest approval rating for Obama in the Gallup tracking polls since May 2011, after the demise of Osama bin Laden. Obama’s approval rating has unsurprisingly flattened out a bit since the enthusiastic DNC Convention with 4 major polls (CNN/Opinion Research, Reuters/Ipsos, Gallup, and Rasmussen Reports) in the 50-51% range, and ABC News/Washington Post and Fox News both at 48%. Since the Rasmussen Reports usually seem to skew Republican, it is noteworthy that the latest Rasmussen poll pegs Obama’s job approval rating at 51%. If President Obama’s job performance ratings can stay above 50%, he will be on more solid ground toward re-election.

2. There are very few undecided or persuadable voters heading into the final campaign stretch. Accrd. to the ABC News/Washington Post Sept. 7-9 poll, only 6% of registered voters have not decided between Obama and Mitt Romney. Further, among Obama and Romney professed voters, only 4% and 5%, respectively, state that there is a good chance they would change their minds. As a result, there is not much fertile ground for the Romney/Ryan ticket to til for votes during the home stretch.

3. The Obama-Romney horse race is trending in favor of Obama since the conventions but is still too close to call. The average of the seven major polls (Fox News, Reuters/Ipsa, ABC News/Washington Post, Gallup, Rasmussen Reports, CNN/Opinion Research, and IBD/CSM/TIPP) has Obama up by slightly over 3.5%. Of those, the ABC/Wash. Post poll shows a disparity between Obama’s edge over Romney of 6% among all registered voters, and only 1% among likely voters. GOTV operations by the Obama/Biden campaign will be critical, especially in the key battleground states, to get favorable registered voters to the polls. The polls in the battleground states (e.g. Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, Iowa) are what really matter in the overall electoral college vote, not the national horse race numbers. More on that in another post. The most recent Real Clear Politics overall tally has Obama at 221 and Romney at 191 with 126 tossup votes. With those toss ups assigned, it’s now projected at Obama 319, Romney 219.

4. Obama is still vulnerable on his handling of the economy with 53% of voters disapproving of Obama’s performance on reviving the economy. And, 50% of Romney’s supporters claim their support of Romney is more of an anti-Obama vote whereas only 22% of Obama’s supporters claim their vote is an anti-Romney vote. But, Obama’s poll numbers point to his continuing personal likeability advantage over Romney (61% Obama, 27% Romney) despite efforts during the RNC Convention to “warm” Mitt Romney up in the eyes of the voters. And, Obama trumps Romney on social issues (+11%), protecting Medicare (+5%), protecting middle class interests (+15%), and addressing women’s issues (+21%). Moreover, Obama still leads in the all important thermometer of “who better understands the economic problems of people like me” by 10%. (All numbers from ABC/Wash. Post poll, Sept. 7-9.)

5. Romney still has an opening to win this race. He needs to vigorously and with tunnel vision capitalize on the 53% of registered voters who do not approve of the way Obama is handling the economy. The voters seem to be willing to cut President Obama slack because he “inherited” a financial mess. FMR President Bill Clinton’s compelling speech at the DNC Convention that Obama hasn’t had enough time to straight out all the country’s economic problems seems to have had some positive effect. And, a stated earlier,  voters “like” President Obama personally. But, Obama – after receiving the football on the 10 yard line after stellar convention speeches by Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden – failed to carry the ball into the end zone by addressing convincingly to some voters how he would exercise the leadership required to reinvigorate the economy in a second term. If Romney can compliment Obama’s personal qualities but persuade voters that Obama is simply “in over his head” and doesn’t have the ability to lead this country through the recession AND Romney he can demonstrate that he can be trusted to lead the country in the right direction with a fair and balanced economic plan (despite the near even number of voters now anxious about both candidates leadership in the next four years: Obama 60%, Romney 59% in ABC/Wash. Post poll), he might be able to turn some of those few  6% undecided voters to his side. But, time is awasting and barring dramatic negative results in one of the two remaining federal job reports between now and the election or a major mistake by President Obama in the upcoming debates, the Romney campaign has its work cut out for it.