FeedThe Ryan Factor
September 15, 2012 in 2012 Obama-Romney Race, DNC Convention
In the race for the White House, Mitt Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan as his running mate is a game-changing element in the trifecta of the key factors influencing the outcome of the election – the Bill Clinton DNC Convention speech, the upcoming presidential debates, and the Ryan pick. When Romney announced his selection of Ryan back on August 11th, both conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats cheered. But, while Paul Ryan’s presence on the ticket has infused enthusiasm into Romney’s campaign and the more conservative base elements of the Republican Party, it has succeeded in rousing an otherwise lethargic Democratic base of voters growing weary of the inability of the Obama Administration to expedite an economic recovery and to fight for the expansion of some social programs.
Moreover, the Ryan presence on the Republican ticket has seemingly swept President Obama vulnerabilities on the economy under the rug while catapulting the conservative social and fiscal agenda of Paul Ryan to the center of the presidential campaign, robbing Romney of his desperately needed focus on Obama’s weak job performance on the economy to pull off a victory in November. In fact, the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll finds that Mitt Romney no longer enjoys his lead over Obama as the candidate voters view as more likely to reinvigorate the economy and create jobs. (Now: Obama 47%, Romney 46%.)
The DNC Convention was also handed an early holiday gift with Ryan’s conservative social agenda providing the perfect platform from which they were able to “tee up” speeches reminding voters of a plethora of Democratic social program successes – from the Lilly Ledbetter “equal pay” law, to the repeal of “don’t ask don’t tell,” to the support of same-sex marriage, and to the guarantee of universal women’s health care – all helping to solidify their base of support among key Democratic – and even swing – voting constituencies. And, given Ryan’s plan to streamline Medicare and social security, it is no surprise that President Obama is starting to gain a lead in the key battleground – and senior citizen-rich – state of Florida where the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll shows Obama’s lead widening to 5% (Obama 49%, Romney 44%).
Typically, vice presidential nominees earn an average voting margin advantage for the ticket of just 2% in their home states. The 10 electoral votes in Wisconsin could be crucial in a close election. But, the state has voted Democratic for president in each of the last 6 elections and in 7 of the last 10. Such a small advantage is diminished by the stark contrasts Ryan’s policies bring to the race. He is a bright legislator and should be given kudos for at least having the courage to put forth a plan to address our federal goverment’s economic woes. But, in this case, Mitt Romney needed Paul Ryan on the ticket to shore up the Republican base. The cost to have done so could be a deciding factor in undermining Romney’s overall success in the November election.
September 16th, 2012 at 8:04 pm
And just when the post convention polls show a settling of the bounce factor, all heck breaks out across half the world. Al-jazeera reports Muslim demonstrations in Mauretania, Algeria, the UK, the Netherlands, Tunisia, Libya (with US fatalities), Sudan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, India, Indonesia, Austrailia (!), and don’t forget the Maldives. All over a movie trailer….
So current events deliver yet another “Black Swan” to spice up politics.