Who Won the First Presidential Debate: Romney, Obama or “Feel Good” Politics?

The prevalent view in the media today is that Romney won last night’s debate and that this might be the game changer he needs to re-invigorate his campaign and cause a bounce in his poll numbers in those all important battleground states. But is it really?? Having been involved on the inside of many campaigns, including several presidential campaigns, let me offer a few thoughts

I have not spoken with David Axelrod or David Plouffe in the Obama campaign, but if I were to guess their strategy going into last night’s debate (whether I agree with it or not) which might explain President Obama’s performance – it would be this:

1. Maintain the nice guy image. Polls show that Obama’s likeability helps erase a host of sins on his failure to get the economy moving again more quickly. So, don’t attack Mitt Romney on his vulnerabilities in the recent polls, e.g. 47% comment, Bain Capital “harvesting,” etc. Those issues have already gotten enormous media play. Keep the debate above board and on your plan forward on the country’s broad economic issues.

2. Don’t let Romney “get to you.” Stay cool and presidential. One of the best ways to do that is to look down when Romney is speaking and take notes so as to avoid letting him “get under your skin.” A common debate tactic.

3. Remember that this race is going to be won, in large part, with the women’s vote. Polls show traditionally that women don’t like personal attacks. So, keep your differences with Romney to the major policy issues and don’t attack him personally. And, remember to raise some issues that will appeal to women viewers, like education (as opposed to women’s contraceptive health care which could be controversial to a diverse viewing audience), even though the topic is not part of Jim Lehrer’s segment agenda. Notice that for much of the time Obama was speaking, CNN’s track of undecided voters listening to the debate showed that women voters were more positive than men about what Obama was saying, including his education remarks.

Obama looked like he was following those tenents. But, his low key style may have gone overboard. Obama looked tired and bored. He also nodded too often while Romney was speaking making it appear that he agreed with Romney much of the time. Obama scored few decisive points with his often rambling style and had a very weak closing statement. Romney won the style over substance of the debate. Romney rattled off many of the “feel your pain” platitudes that make people feel good using personal anecdotes to give them credibility. And, he did so in a sympathetic fashion. His poll numbers on connecting with people will now rise. And, less informed voters (who are often in the group of undecided voters who make up their minds late in a campaign) might be persuaded by his performance.

But, Romney’s plans were vague and his numbers often didn’t add up. Reminds me of the saying “the devil is in the details.” If only Bill Clinton were on stage to back up Obama on the fuzzy “arithmetic” of Romney’s “revenue neutral” $5 trillion tax cut, his incorrect charge that Obama had “doubled” the national deficit on his watch, and his criticism that Obama “cut” $716 billion from Medicare to add to Obamacare, when Romney and Ryan’s own budget plan calls for cutting the same $716 billion from Medicare. Romney’s condescending attitude toward “the poor,” and his plans to thrash federal government programs like Medicare also went largely unchallenged by the President.

Obama’s facts and substance on the major issues were superior to Romney’s. But Obama’s passive, aloof, and almost elitist (like Romney has been in the past) presence undermined his pre-debate image as the candidate who cares more about Main Street people. He let Romney drape himself in the cloak of  “middle class America” when many of Romney’s policies belie that.

So, on the “two P’s” – program and performance (the ability to lead us forward) – that my previous blog post states are the keys to this race, where do the candidates stand today? President Obama still comes out higher on program given his balanced and detailed economic plan. But, Mitt Romney was able to remind voters last night that he may have stronger leadership and the personal qualities it takes to get the job done that Obama has failed to exhibit during the last four years. And, Romney may have softened voters’ fears about his policies by showing empathy for the middle class and glossing over the holes in his economic plans and its potential burden on the middle class.

Obama came into this first and most important of the debates – which traditionally gives a bounce to the challenger – with leads in polls in a majority of the battleground states and appeared to “play it safe” and sit on his lead last night. He acted like it was the last few seconds of the fourth quarter of a football game rather than the second quarter of the game. Obama “won” the convention phase and came up short on the second phase last night. Only time will tell whether Romney’s superior style and performance will have any real and sustained effect upon the small segment of remaining undecided voters in November as the presidential campaign heads into the third quarter. Romney’s bump from last night may be just a flash in the pan as few of Obama’s base voters have indicated that they might change their minds, and some undecided voters – as is often the case – won’t come out and vote. But, last night’s debate will affect media stories until the next debate on October 16th and, that alone, could produce some real movement toward Romney.