Too Early to Cash in on Washington Post/ABC Hillary Clinton Poll

The results of the Washington Post/ABC Poll conducted May 29 – June 1st have just been released. Yes, the numbers look good for Hillary Clinton should she enter the presidential fray in 2016: 66% support for Hillary Clinton and just 12% for her nearest Democratic rival, Joe Biden, among registered lean Democrats. And, in prospective 2016 match-ups, Hillary Clinton holds a 10%+  margin of support among registered voters – 53% to 42% for Rand Paul, similar to her April poll numbers of 53% to 41% for Jeb Bush, and 53% to 41 for Chris Christie in January of this year.

The typical support margins for a Democratic presidential candidate among women, nonwhites, Democrats, liberals, and under age 50 voters are all there for Clinton, too. And, she scores well among voters who believe she is a stong leader (67%), honest and trustworthy (60%), has new ideas for the country’s future (59%), and understands their problems (55%). But, how much stock can we place in these positive numbers as predictors of a Hillary Clinton 2016 election for president? Not much.

Hillary Clinton knows that, too. That’s why she is cautiously waiting until years end to – as she calls it in Diane Sawyer’s ABC prime time interview on Hillary’s new book, “Hard Choices,” –  “go through my pluses and minuses about what I will and will not be thinking about as I make the decision” about whether to run for president.

By the end of 2014, the political landscape will be somewhat clearer – although it will still be a long way off from the election in November 2016. Will President Obama’s mediocre job performance ratings (46% in this latest Post/ABC Poll) continue to stagnate; will the upcoming congressional hearings on the Benghazi embassy attack begin to affect Clinton’s overall positive ratings; will her sympathetic messages in her new book help “settle” some of her political vulnerabilities in the minds of the voters, such as the age old Monica Lewinsky incident, the Benghazi tragedy, and the double standard for women candidates, especially among white male voters? Does she want to go through the fire of a two year presidential campaign, especially if she has to fight off attacks from other credible Democtatic candidates to earn voter support?

The Post/ABC Poll also reveals that Hillary Clinton still enjoys a high (59%) approval rating for her overall performance as Secretary of State (slightly up from that of Condolezza Rice (58%) and Madeline Albright (56%) ) and her high job approval rating does not seem to be dampened yet by the 37% of the public who disapprove of the way she handled the Benghazi attack, nor by President Obama’s thin 41% public approval of his handling of foreign policy. But, time will tell if her positive numbers will hold up. Moreover, once she becomes an announced candidate – if she does – all bets are off. Her relative teflon coating will disappear and the typical mud thrown in a contested race will begin to stick.

My prediction is that when December arrives, Hillary Clinton will figure out a way to postpone her candidacy decision – or at least her announcement of it –  until, at least, the second quarter of 2015 to abbreviate the ultimate battering of a presidential campaign and to give her a further chance to scope out any potential rivals. After all, much of her presidential campaign structure is already in place with the Ready for Hillary organization and other similar groups so she might be able to afford to keep her official candidacy under wraps a bit longer.

Despite the fact that the Post/ABC Poll finds that 55% of her lean Democratic supporters want other Democrats to challenge her for the nomination (some may be of the common, but not always true, view that a contest strengthens a candicacy rather than weakens it), a candidate like, Hillary Clinton, who is already well known, doesn’t need the divisive exposure from a heated primary season. She – and her campaign – didn’t handle it well in 2008 and I predict – they would not welcome it in 2016. This time, Hillary Clinton will want to know her chances of  “breaking the glass ceiling” are very favorable before tossing her hat into the ring. After all, she exudes a certain personal confidence and fulfillment in her life these days and she already has an accomplished record of public service. The pressure on her to break the White House glass ceiling will be great. But, I predict that she will walk away with grace if she is not at peace with leading that crusade.

So, stay tuned. There are many miles – and months –  to go before the 2016 presidential race takes shape.

Disclosure: In the interest of full disclosure, I served in several capacities in Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign. For more information on my involvement, consult my LinkedIn profile: