FeedMalloy, Foley Race May Tip on Women’s Vote and Gun Control
November 3, 2014 in 2014 Connecticut Governor's Race
With less than 24 hours left before the polls open in the Connecticut gubernatorial race, the outcome in this toss-up race between Democratic Governor Dan Malloy and his Republican challenger Tom Foley may well hinge on the two candidate’s differing views on gun control in the wake of the Sandy Hook Elementary School tragedy in Newtown in December 2012.
In response to the school massacre, Governor Malloy fostered an ambitious package of gun control reforms, now law. Foley’s positions on gun control waivered during the campaign while he focused on advocating mental health reforms. He refused to support background checks for gun purchasers. Foley ultimately stated that while he would not push for a repeal of the new gun law, he would oppose further gun control legislation. His pro-gun position earned Foley the endorsement of the Connecticut Citizens Defense League (CCDL), a 15,000 member gun owners group, and a favorable B- rating from the National Rifle Association (NRA). It also attracted a $1.7 million pro-Malloy media buy in Connecticut by gun contral advocate and former New York Mayor, Michael Bloomberg. And, it handed Malloy an issue from which to increase his support among women voters.
Let’s look at the political polls on the race. The latest Quinnipiac Poll (“Q Poll”) conducted 10/28-11/2 shows Malloy with a 47% – 44% lead over Foley with 7% of likely voters undecided and 11% of committed voters who might change their minds. However, the Real Clear Politics average of key polls (10/16 – 11/2) shows a razer thin 1.7% margin for Malloy. The race has been a toss up for several weeks. Even the 3% voter margin in favor of Malloy in the Q Poll released today is within the poll’s 3.2% margin of error.
But, below the surface of these overall poll numbers is a consistent and significant base of support for Malloy among women voters. This is a group that traditionally favors gun control and, given the still fresh memories of the slaughter of 26 young children and female educators at Sandy Hook Elementary School, would be even more sensitive to the need for gun control than the typically male-dominated pro gun voters in a state.
In the latest Q Poll, Malloy is up 15% over Foley (52%-38%) among women voters – very close to his even larger 17% margin among women in the Q Poll released last week. While Democratic candidates typically lead Republicans in support among women voters, these 15%-17% margins are higher than the norm. Plus, Malloy benefits from his larger 15% lead among women voters than Foley’s 10% lead over Malloy among male voters (51%-41%). Had Foley not waffled on the gun issue for so long during the campaign – failing to recognize the emotional draw of the Newtown tragedy, especially among women voters – he might have still picked up the traditionally Republican block of pro gun advocates in the state while preventing his support among female voters from eroding in Malloy’s favor. And, he might be leading Malloy by 3-5% today.
The race is still a dead heat. Both candidates are still personally unpopular though Foley has improved his rating in the latest poll to 44%-42% favorable, while Malloy is still carrying a 49%-43% unfavorable rating by voters. Foley will continue to press his argument that strikes a chord with some voters that Malloy is a “high tax” governor who has failed to get the Connecticut economy moving again. In a race this close, the outcome will depend on the success or failure of the respective candidates GOTV campaign operations. But, if Malloy can get his base – especially women voters who support gun control – to the polls – he will prevail. If not, it is Foley’s race to win.
