Good News for Obama in the “Elite Eight” Battleground States

It may not be time yet for the NCAA college basketball tournament, but those seeking an “elite eight” this early in the pre-season should keep an eye on the race for the White House. President Obama and former MA Governor Mitt Romney have an elite eight of their own – the key battleground states where this race will be decided in November. The three big states are Florida, Ohio and Virginia with a combined 60 electoral votes. The other five toss-up states include Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina with a total tab of 40 electoral votes.

Nationally, Obama leads Romney in seven of the eight latest major presidential polls cited in Real Clear Politics (RCP) by an overall average of about 4%, with Rasmussen Reports (typically more Republican) pegging an even race. Obama’s 4% margin compares with George W. Bush’s margin of just 1.5% over John Kerry at this point in the race in 2004. But, national polls aren’t what really matters. It’s who wins the combination of states necessary to achieve the crucial 270 electoral votes required for victory. In the battle for these 270 electoral votes, RCP calls it 247 for Obama and 191 for Romney with 100 electoral votes in the “elite eight” battleground states up for grabs. Obama needs just 23 more electoral votes to win versus 79 needed for Romney. Let’s see how Obama and Romney are faring in these key states (electoral votes) with the very latest polling results:

Florida (29)

Of the six most recent polls, four have Obama ahead by 1-5%, most notably Fox News and NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist both showing a 5% margin. Gravis Marketing and Purple Strategies each have Romney up by 1%. One of the key factors in the outcome here will be Florida’s 18% Hispanic voting block – the highest concentration of Hispanics outside of New York. A Pew Research Center poll of likely voters shows a 72% to 22% advantage for Obama among Hispanic voters nationally despite their high 10% unemployment rate. And Romney’s perceived unsympathetic immigration policies may continue to drive these voters to Obama. Florida’s over 17% senior citizen population who may feel stung by the Ryan budget proposals on Medicare may also favor Obama. But, the Jewish vote, some of whom are dissatisfied with Obama’s policies toward Israel, may vote for Romney. Obama won Florida in 2008, but it proved the difference in the 2000 Bush-Gore race and cannot be taken for granted.

Ohio (18)

Obama seems to be pulling ahead with margins of 4-7% in the four most recent polls. Of those, polls by Fox News and NBC/WSJ/Marist both give Obama a 7% advantage. The NBC poll also show a gap in the favorability of each candidate with likely voters having a 51% favorable impression of Obama to only 40% for Romney, and voters giving Obama a 48% favorable rating for his handling of the economy to 44% for Romney. Obama enjoys strong support among labor in the state, especially with his engineering of the bailout of the U.S. automobile industry. But, Ohio can be unpredictable. The state has voted for the winning presidential candidate in the last 12 elections.

Virginia (13)

Virginia seems to fluctuate between the Romney and  Obama “win” columns in RCP from week to week. But, the latest eight tracking polls all have Obama up by ranges of 3% to 8% (e.g., NBC/WSJ/Marist 5%, Fox News 7%, Washington Post 8%). Northern Virginia can be reliably Democratic with its high concentration of federal workers who may be threatened by the Ryan/Romney budget proposals. Typically, the balance of the state is much more conservative. But, the controversy in Richmond over women’s health care issues might also spell trouble for Romney with the women’s vote given his alliance with conservative VA Gov. Bob McConnell. Obama won the state in 2008, but the Republican presidential nominee has won the state in every other election since 1964. GOTV in the northern VA Washington, D.C. suburbs will be a critical element for Obama to prevail here in 2012.

Colorado (9)

Obama leads in five of the six recent tracking polls by margins of 1% to 5% (e.g., CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 1%, NBC/WSJ/Marist 5%). Only the Rasmussen Reports poll has a Romney edge (2%). Obama scored a victory here in 2008. Democratic wins for governor and the U.S. Senate here in 2010 should provide some organization and political power from which to launch another Obama win. The large Hispanic population should also be fertile territory for Obama. But, there is also an active evangelical community in the state that might favor the Romney/Ryan ticket.

Iowa (6)

Three major recent polls show a diversity of results. NBC/WSJ/Marist has an 8% margin for Obama and Rasmussen Reports suggests a 3% Romney margin. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll reports an 8% Obama margin. Romney has a better than even chance of pulling out this state which is one reason why Obama has spent more time in Iowa in recent months. Even though Obama won Iowa in the 2008 presidential primary, Romney has spent considerable time here during the 2012 Republican presidential primary. And, Iowa’s significant evangelical and Tea Party constituencies could bode well for Romney.

Nevada (6)

At over 12%, Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country. But, Romney doesn’t seem to be capitalizing on it. Three recent polls all have Obama ahead, even the Rasmussen Reports with a 2% Obama margin. (Others are CNN/Opinion Research Obama up 3% and Yougov.com Obama up 8%). Nevada’s large Mormon population should be a plus for Romney as will the considerable Hispanic population for Obama. Obama won Nevada by 12% in 2008.

New Hampshire (4)

If Obama’s leads in the other battleground states continue to grow, New Hampshire with its four electoral votes may well become inconsequential. Romney should have an advantage here having served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts and owning a vacation home in this state. But, three recent polls all have Obama in the lead. (e.g., ARG Obama 1%, WMUR-TV/Granite State Obama 5%, and Yougov.com Obama 7%).

North Carolina (15)

Based on an overall tracking of 43 polls, the Huffington Post Model has Obama up here slightly by 47% to Romney’s 46.7% – really a dead heat. The two most recent individual polls have Obama up by 2% and 4%, respectively, (Purple Strategies and Fox 8/High Point University). But, the two polls conducted just prior to those have Romney up by 2% and 6 %, respectively, (Yougov.com and Rasmussen).  Obama won narrowly here – by just 3/10% in 2008 and the Democrats are hoping that their DNC Convention presence in Charlotte will engender voter support in November. But, North Carolina can be considered a more socially conservative southern state which might make this state a more likely pickup for Romney in the election.

With three presidential debates, one vice-presidential debate, and two national job reports to come, as well as the day to day news stories of the two campaigns, anything can happen between now and the election. But with Obama now leading in seven of the eight battleground states (without the full effect yet of Romney’s “47% comment” reflected in the polls), just a small number of voters (5-10%) in each of these battleground states claiming to be undecided, President Obama enjoying a distinct advantage over Romney in voters’ favorable personal impressions of him, and Romney’s slipping advantage over Obama in voters’ perceptions of who would handle the economy better, Romney needs a game changer to win the 270 electoral votes necessary to prevail if current voter trends in the “elite eight” battleground states continue in Obama’s favor during the coming weeks.