Obama 277, Romney 261, With An Asterisk*

You’ve seen hundreds of national and battleground state polls during this presidential campaign with a plethora of different results and projections. Even top pollsters are saying that this presidential election is unpredictable, too close to call, and possibly could result in a tie requiring the U.S. House to select the next President and the U.S. Senate, the Vice President. But, let me take a stab at it and offer my two cents, knowing that the landscape could change somewhat in the next several days with the announcement of new federal unemployment numbers, the effect of Storm Sandy on early voting and election day turnout (particularly impacting projected Democratic rich electoral vote states in the northeast), the potential for President Obama to “manage” or “mismanage” the storm crisis and thus score or lose points with voters, the storm news keeping Mitt Romney off the front pages more than Obama, the vagaries of the Romney and Obama campaigns in the coming days, the effect, or lack of effect, of media spots on undecided voters who are with or without internet and television service in the aftermath of the storm, and the respective GOTV operations of each campaign. Thus, my asterisk.*

Starting with the Real Clear Politics (RCP) 2012 Electoral Map showing Obama at 201 and Romney at 191, with Toss-Up States at 146, I conclude that Obama will win with, at least, 277 electoral votes with Romney earning 261 – far closer than Obama’s 365 to 173 win over McCain in 2008.  Here’s how I get there: RCP includes eleven states in the toss-up column. Of those, I give Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) to Obama and North Carolina (15) to Romney. I believe the contest in those states is already over unless turnout is dramatically different than projected. That brings Obama to 237 (short 33) and Romney to 206 (short 64) with 270 electoral votes required for election. Of the eight remaining toss-up states, I allocate them, as follows:

Obama: Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10).

Romney: Colorado (9), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), and Virginia (13).

The result: Obama 277 and Romney 261.

Here are my reasons, generally, and then, briefly, state by state:

1. One of my posts last month stated that the election would come down to the “Two P’s” – which candidate did a better job of addressing his shortcoming – Obama his perceived weak leadership performance on the economy, and Romney his perceived conservative, unbalanced policies. Romney has done a better job in softening his conservative policies, largely due to his performance in the debates during which he cloaked himself in moderation, than Obama has done in convincing voters that he can provide stronger leadership to expedite the recovery of our economy during the next four years. While Romney’s debate performance has increased his support, especially among independents and women, enabling him to narrow Obama’s lead, his momentum has now stabilized giving Obama an opportunity to cast doubt in voters’ minds about whether they can trust Romney’s new found moderation. In my view, the election day conflict in undecided voters’ minds will be whether their distress over the sluggish economy and urge for a change to stronger leadership in Washington will be outweighed by their fear of the risk of voting for a candidate whose has seemingly reinvented himself with new found, fluctuating, and in some cases, vague, but more moderate positions. Obama’s “Romnesia” statement attempts to capitalize on this uneasiness and could sway voters who are paying attention in the waning days of the campaign.

2. Another reason for the closeness of the race is President Obama’s job approval numbers. While the battleground state numbers favoring Obama are more relevant to the projected electoral college vote than the national polls that have been trending in Romney’s favor, Obama’s job approval numbers are still low. The latest RCP average has an Obama job approval rating of just 49.1% favorable to 47.9% unfavorable. Fifty percent or above is typically the measure of an incumbent’s re-election. Obama’s numbers were 50-52% after the Democratic National Convention – the highest since the demise of Osama bin Laden in May 2011 – and have trended lower in the 48-49% range since.

3. Romney’s average national poll voter margin over Obama is now .9% compared to Bush’s 2.6% margin over Kerry at this time before the 2004 election. Bush went on to win with 286 electoral votes versus 252 for Kerry. Romney’s edge is much narrower and has been declining during the last week. Obama does not have the 6% average national poll voter margin that he had at this time in 2008 when he won with 365 electoral votes. But, I project Obama will have a slight edge or at least even the score by election day, allowing his campaign to win narrowly based upon voter turnout in the key battleground states.

4. Most public opinion polls are based upon likely voters, a group that typically underestimates minorities and transient voters who tend to vote Democratic. It’s no secret that Obama enjoys higher support among all registered voters than Romney. With their 2008 campaign experience to draw upon, I expect that the Obama GOTV organization will maximize their voter turnout, especially in the battleground states. If that occurs, Colorado and New Hampshire, or even Virginia (though a long shot), could end up in Obama’s column giving him 290-303 votes to Romney’s 248-235. On the other hand, if my above-stated state projections hold, except for Wisconsin going for Romney, then Romney would win with 271 electoral votes to Obama’s 267. However, the last time Wisconsin went for the Republican Presidential nominee was in 1984.  Even with Paul Ryan on the ticket, most major polls in Wisconsin since August have been in Obama’s favor. It will be a tough slog for Romney to win Wisconsin given the traditionally Democratic voter base there. But, if he does win Wisconsin, then Obama would need New Hampshire’s four electoral votes to put him over the top, perhaps explaining the time Obama has spent in a state with so few electoral votes.

5. Much has been made of the declining enthusiasm of Obama voters. But, given the media hype over the “close” election and the predicted strong GOTV operations by both camps, I predict a higher than expected turnout among all voters, including young voters. While young voters may not be involved on the ground in Obama’s campaign to the extent they were in 2008 and might be projected as lukewarm for Obama given the poor job market for recent graduates, they will be motivated to vote for Obama on social issues given the conservative Romney/Ryan social agenda. And, women voters are still comfortably in Obama’s column in most of the battleground states despite Romney’s success in narrowing Obama’s margins in some of these key states.

6. State-by-State Snapshot:

Colorado for Romney: Colorado (and New Hampshire) could be close and tip toward Obama. But, the strong Hispanic vote for Obama in Colorado will not be enough to overcome the base of evangelical voters and the streak of independent voters for Romney.

Florida for Romney: The Republicans know how to turnout votes in Florida, especially in the Panhandle area of the state. The Ryan policies on Medicare do not seem to have affected the senior vote here to the extent hoped for by the Obama organization. The Jewish vote is still lukewarm on Obama. Obama wins Florida only if he gets a landslide Latino turnout. Unlikely to happen.

Iowa for Obama: Despite the Des Moines Register endorsement of Romney and the tea party/evangelical base of voters for Romney here, Obama has tended this state meticulously since 2008 and it will be in his column.

Nevada for Obama: Never underestimate the ability of U.S. Senator Harry Reid’s well-oiled organization to get out the vote for Obama in Nevada, even with a high  unemployment rate and a base of Mormon voters inclined toward Romney.

New Hampshire for Romney: Obama has visited New Hampshire twice in recent weeks to try to pull it into his column. Like Colorado, the vote will be close in the Granite State and could tip into Obama’s column. But, with independents leaning toward Romney and state residents in the mold of New England Yankees concerned about the federal deficit, I would bet on Romney pulling this one out.

Ohio for Obama: It is too late for Romney to schmooze a state that has been tended to by Obama (and “blue collar” popular Vice President Joe Biden) for four years. Even though Obama’s statewide margin of support has declined from 10% to 5 % in the latest CBS News Poll, his support for the auto industry, his identity with middle class and blue collar voters, his 15% lead among women voters, and his 6% favorable rating versus 2% negative rating for Romney will be enough to keep him ahead in the race here.

Virginia for Romney: Obama won Virginia in 2008, but that was the first time a Democrat for president had won the state since 1964. Obama will get a strong vote in liberal, federal worker laden, northern Virginia, but it will not be enough to overcome the lead for Romney in conservative, coal mining, militaryesque southern Virginia.

Wisconsin fror Obama: Yes, the race for electoral votes may come down to Wisconsin. But, I never thought this state would go for Romney, even with Paul Ryan on the ticket. Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican for president since 1984. I did not include Wisconsin on my initial list of the eight battleground states and I still believe that it will be in Obama’s column after the polls close on Tuesday.

That’s it, folks. Please go and vote!